JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2009 Joint Statistical Meetings in Washington, DC.

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Activity Number: 34
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 2, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #305109
Title: Using Mathematical Models to Predict the Risk of Listeriosis
Author(s): Zheng Lu*+ and Chunwang Gao and Chunwang Gao
Companies: Virginia Commonwealth University and Iowa State University and Iowa State University
Address: , , 23233,
Keywords: Listeriosis ; growth curve ; mathematical models ; organic acid salts
Abstract:

The prevention of the listeriosis received greater attention with the increased L. monocytogenes outbreaks worldwide. Using mathematical model to predict the risk of listeriosis became a priority area of work for the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC). The objective of this study is to select proper models to predict L. monocytogenes growth curve and to provide the risk assessment for listeriosis. The results showed that, Lag Exponential model is preferred for calculating growth rate and lag phase, and Gompertz model is preferred to calculate the maximum population density. The surface treatment on frankfurters significantly decreased the growth of the L. monocytogenes, e.g., the lag phase is longer and the growth rate is lower. This information is expected to improve the practical guidelines and methodology for hazard characterization of microbial pathogens.


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