Effective and Efficient Monitoring of Steller's Eiders at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska: Barriers and Pitfalls

• Activity Number: 264
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Joel H. Reynolds*+
• Companies: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
• Keywords: multi-state mark-recapture ; wildlife ; confounding ; environmental policy ; monitoring ; survey design

Abstract

Band-recapture surveys of Steller's eiders (Polysticta stelleri), a little understood yet globally declining sea duck, have been conducted at Izembek lagoon, Alaska, since 1992. They are the only source of information on species' survival rates. Analyses in 1997 identified an appropriate multi-state mark recapture model with movement memory and estimated strong fidelity to molting sites in the lagoon and low apparent survival rates differing among sexes. Sample size guidance was provided for future monitoring. We pick up the story in 2005, discuss some subtle applied modeling and design issues, and focus on their sources in poor integration of mathematics, monitoring design, biology, and management. The study shows how communication and organizational failures can undermine a monitoring program everyone wants to succeed. Implications for large-scale monitoring programs are discussed.