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Activity Number:
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117
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #304811 |
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Title:
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Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction Models Using Residual Analysis for Spatial Point Processes
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Author(s):
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Robert A. Clements*+
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Companies:
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University of California, Los Angeles
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Address:
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, , ,
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Keywords:
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earthquake ; spatial ; residuals ; thinned ; rescaled ; space-time
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Abstract:
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The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has created a testing center called The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) which has amassed a wide collection of earthquake prediction models submitted by a variety of research groups. The accuracy of these models is important for future research on earthquake forecasting. CSEP investigators have previously assessed goodness-of-fit of these models using rather simplistic methods which are not optimally powerful. Here, we explore and apply several alternative residual analysis methods for space-time point processes to assess the fit of earthquake prediction models. Included among these are weighted 2nd-order statistics, rescaled residuals, and thinned residuals.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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