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Abstract:
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We want to persuade you of one claim: that William Sealy Gosset (1876--1937)-aka "Student" of "Student's" t-test-was right, and that his difficult friend, Ronald A. Fisher (1890-1962), though a genius, was wrong. Fit is not the same thing as importance. Statistical significance is not the same thing as scientific relevance. But the mistaken equation is made, we find, in 9 of 10 articles appearing in the leading journals of science, economics to medicine. The history of this "standard error" of science involves varied characters and plot twists, but especially R. A. Fisher's canonical translation of "Student's" t. Gosset, as Head Brewer of Guinness, took an economic approach to the logic of uncertainty. Fisher erased the consciously economic element, Gosset's "real error." We want to bring it back.
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