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Abstract:
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The evaluation of basketball players has historically focused on a few simple measures (e.g., points per game). In recent years several authors have suggested new, more sophisticated approaches to evaluating the contribution of a player. This talk will review some of these approaches, focusing primarily on the plus-minus (+/-) rating, and the adjusted +/- suggested by Rosenbaum (2004). The adjusted +/- estimates a player's contribution to the score differential, after accounting for the contributions of the other players in the game, with a multiple regression model. After reviewing the previously proposed methods, I will discuss an extension of the adjusted +/- method, based on Poisson processes. The talk also investigates the relationship between the player contributions and Oliver's four factors (Oliver, 2004).
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