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Activity Number: 452
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2009 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: IMS
Abstract - #302756
Title: Inference Post-Model Selection: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Author(s): Hannes Leeb*+
Companies: Yale University
Address: Department of Statistics , New Haven, CT, 06510,
Keywords: Model selection ; inference ; ill-posed problems ; shrinkage methods ; adaption ; confidence and prediction intervals
Abstract:

In situations where a data-driven model selection step precedes subsequent model fitting, we study the potential, the limitations, and also the caveats of inference procedures that are based on the selected model. In particular, we review some insurmountable obstructions to inference in such settings, discuss certain myths about the performance of post-model-selection estimators, and describe scenarios in which inference procedures post model selection can perform well.


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