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Activity Number: 142
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 4, 2008 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #302561
Title: Probabilistic Projections of Fertility Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Author(s): Leontine Alkema*+ and Adrian E. Raftery and Patrick Gerland and Samuel Clark and Francois Pelletier
Companies: University of Washington and University of Washington and United Nations Population Division and University of Washington and United Nations Population Division
Address: Statistics Department, , ,
Keywords:
Abstract:

The United Nations Population Division produces estimates and projections of the total fertility rate for all countries in the world every two years. For countries with fertility above replacement level, future levels are projected based on a parametric function. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic projections of fertility and give results for a number of Asian and African countries.

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