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Activity Number:
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59
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 3, 2008 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #302124 |
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Title:
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A Multivariate Spatial Model for Prediction of Storm Outages
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Author(s):
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Hongfei Li*+ and Jonathan Hosking
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Companies:
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IBM T. J. Watson Research Center and IBM T. J. Watson Research Center
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Address:
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1101 Kitchawan Road, Route 134, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598,
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Keywords:
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Multivariate Spatial Model ; Outage Prediction ; Bayesian Hierarchical Model
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Abstract:
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We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model for multivariate spatial data, with the aim of predicting the number of outages suffered by customers of an electric utility as a result of severe weather events such as high winds, thunderstorms, and tornadoes. Specific attention is given to building models that incorporate covariates as well as spatial correlation in a multivariate context. Bayesian inference is implemented by means of a MCMC algorithm.
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