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Activity Number: 233
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2008 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics
Abstract - #301871
Title: Health Consequences of Alcohol Abuse: An Ecological Model
Author(s): Yasmin H. Said*+
Companies: George Mason University
Address: 23044 Winged Elm Dr., Clarksburg, MD, 20871,
Keywords: Stochastic hierarchical model ; Dirichlet distribution ; Stochastic directed graph ; acute outcome ; HIV ; time-of-day
Abstract:

The users of alcohol and the environment in which they are embedded may be thought of as analogous to an ecological system. Controlling specific aspects of this system (e.g., drinking and driving) may result in unintended consequences (e.g., an increase in domestic violence as the result of high volume drinkers spending more time at home due to the emphasis on policing of drunk driving program). Another example could be promiscuous behavior as a result of drinking too much, which, in turn, might lead to infection with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). In this paper we develop a model of this system and investigate interventions for the simultaneous suppression of negative health consequences.


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Revised September, 2008