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Abstract:
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Species richness is perhaps the most widely used metric of biodiversity. However, in surveys of biological communities, some species typically go undetected. Therefore, statistical models are needed to estimate community-level characteristics, such as richness, while accounting for the imperfect detectability of individual species. Imperfect detection is also important when trying to infer the seasonal dynamics of communities, which often include the superposition of species-specific phenologies. For example, seasonal periods of activity (for animals) or growth (for plants) often vary among species. We develop a framework for inferring seasonal changes in species composition and richness based on elemental models of species- and site-specific occurrence. This framework is applied in an analysis of the seasonal dynamics of butterfly species in Switzerland.
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