|
Activity Number:
|
116
|
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Monday, July 30, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Social Statistics Section
|
| Abstract - #309949 |
|
Title:
|
Estimating Conflict-Related Mortality in Timor-Leste, 1974-1999: A Comparative Review of Demographic and Statistical Estimation Methods
|
|
Author(s):
|
Romesh Silva*+ and Patrick Ball
|
|
Companies:
|
Human Rights Data Analysis Group and The Benetech Initiative
|
|
Address:
|
2232 Piedmont Ave, Berkeley, CA, 94708,
|
|
Keywords:
|
human rights ; mortality ; multiple systems estimation
|
|
Abstract:
|
Scientifically-defensible answers about the patterns and overall magnitude of conflict-related mortality can depoliticize arguments about the past. Yet, such analysis is often difficult due to limited existing data and the considerable challenges of collecting data in unsettled situations. This paper draws on a multiple data sources (retrospective survey data, administrative data and testimony data) and estimates conflict-related mortality in Timor-Leste between 1974 and 1999. Using these data, we apply survey-based estimates, multiple-systems estimation and indirect demographic estimation. Estimates of conflict-related mortality are presented along with discussion about strengths and weaknesses of the different methods. Particular focus is given to potential bias in mortality estimates derived from retrospective surveys due to positive correlation between mortality and sibship size.
|
