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This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 343
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #310399
Title: Modeling Enrollment Growth at California State University, East Bay
Author(s): Barbara Warsavage*+
Companies: CSUEB
Address: 516 Soquel Av 4, Santa Cruz, CA, 95062,
Keywords: Enrollment model ; growth model ; repeated measures ; longitudinal studies
Abstract:

Enrollment growth at a state university is dependent on current enrollment, retention and new enrollment by transfer and by first time freshmen. Prediction of new enrollments can be enhanced using demographic data from the local area. By using these factors in a model known as the partial adjustment model, it is possible to improve projections over standard Markov modeling. A variety of estimation methods will be tried using various error structures. The model will be tested on historical data. Projections will be made with error bounds created by normal theory as well as by bootstrap methods.


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Revised September, 2007