JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 415
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #310319
Title: A Stochastic Model of HIV Escape from the Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte Response
Author(s): Elissa Schwartz*+ and Lisette G. De Pillis and William G. Cumberland and Otto Yang
Companies: Washington State University and Harvey Mudd College and University of California, Los Angeles and University of California, Los Angeles
Address: Department of Mathematics, Pullman, WA, 991643113,
Keywords: Stochastic Model ; Parameter Estimation ; Human Immunodeficiency Virus ; Vaccine ; Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte Response ; Viral Escape
Abstract:

HIV vaccine development requires information on what stimulates an effective immune response. Determination of conditions allowing viral evasion from killing by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) is needed in order to predict patterns of viral escape. The appearance of CTL escape mutants reported in the published data is not well approximated by deterministic models of viral escape. This finding motivated us to model viral escape as a stochastic process (taking into account viral parameters such as mutation rate, production rate, and the effect of CTL killing), fit the models with clinical data, and estimate kinetic parameters involved in escape. Our calculations may be used to provide estimates of the CTL pressure on HIV. Furthermore our results underscore fundamental immune mechanisms that may help design prophylactic and therapeutic HIV vaccines.


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Revised September, 2007