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Activity Number:
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425
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and Marketing
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| Abstract - #310180 |
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Title:
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Quantifying the Indirect Effects of a Marketing Contact
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Author(s):
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Dingxi Qiu*+ and Edward C. Malthouse and Ajit Tamhane
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Companies:
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Northwestern University and Northwestern University and Northwestern University
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Address:
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2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL, 60208,
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Keywords:
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Marginal Effect ; Survial Analysis
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Abstract:
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We quantify the indirect effects of marketing contact points (e.g., exposure to a banner ad or catalog) on outcomes such as the likelihood or amount of purchase. A direct effect of a banner ad is a purchase resulting from a click on the ad while an indirect effect is the incremental change in the likelihood of purchase at another time due to the exposure. An indirect effect of a catalog is a purchase from a store or web site. Models that do not account for indirect effects underestimate the value of the contact. We develop survival analysis models of the marginal effects of such contacts, enabling companies to quantify the benefit of exposing someone to an ad, which can be compared with costs. The approach is tested with real data in three contexts: banner ads for an on-line service, catalogs from a multi-channel retailer, and donation solicitations from not-for-profit organizations.
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