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Activity Number:
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32
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, July 29, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #309972 |
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Title:
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Spatial Modeling for Groundwater Arsenic Levels in North Carolina
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Author(s):
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Dohyeong Kim*+ and Marie Lynn Miranda and Joshua Tootoo and Alan E. Gelfand
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Companies:
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Duke University and Duke University and Duke University and Duke University
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Address:
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Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708-0328,
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Keywords:
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arsenic in groundwater ; spatial random effects model ; 3-dimensional arsenic surface ; GIS
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Abstract:
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Growing evidence on the relationship between long-term exposure to arsenic in drinking water and negative health outcomes has drawn attention to unregulated private wells with potentially high levels of arsenic. Little is known about the environmental determinants of arsenic in groundwater. Data collected from 475 private wells in Orange County, North Carolina were integrated with detailed geological and tax assessor's parcel data into a GIS. The data were initially fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. Then, a Bayesian spatial random effects model was developed to illuminate spatial pattern in arsenic residuals. The resulting models provide a basis for public health intervention by creating three-dimensional surface maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.
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