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Activity Number:
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291
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #309954 |
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Title:
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Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Eastern Equine Encephalitis in Southern New Hampshire
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Author(s):
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Ernst Linder*+ and Carlee Moser and Francois Laflamme and Jason Stull
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Companies:
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University of New Hampshire and University of New Hampshire and Statistics Canada and U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
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Address:
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Dept of Mathematics and Statistics, Durham, NH, 03824,
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Keywords:
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spatial surveillance ; cluster detection ; space time modeling ; sparse data ; disease mapping
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Abstract:
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Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is a mosquito transmitted virus that is deadly to horses and can be deadly to humans. It has been prevalent during the summer in the Eastern US. Recent equine and human cases of EEE in the Southern portion of New Hampshire have prompted the pooled testing for EEE of numerous mosquito samples. We examine the spatio temporal dynamics of the occurrence of EEE based on such mosquito pool data for 37 towns using weekly aggregated counts during the last three summers. We pose a spatio temporal model for p, the probability that a randomly selected mosquito is a carrier. We assume a functional prior for the mean of p over time that reflects the onset, rise, and decline of the virus over a typical season. Our model allows us to compare occurrence rates between towns but also to identify clusters or hot spots of elevated risk in space and time.
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