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Activity Number:
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186
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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| Abstract - #309868 |
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Title:
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Quantifying Project Management Delay Costs Through Simulation Modeling
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Author(s):
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Andrew Kumiega*+ and Deborah Cernauskas
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Companies:
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Spectrum Global and IBM
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Address:
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233 Maple, Downers Grove, IL, 60515,
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Keywords:
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Simulation ; Project Management
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Abstract:
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Most contractors have experienced time and cost overruns on a project. Unplanned project delays resulting in cost overruns occur for various reasons including material shortages and uncontrollable weather. Project managers are faced with the task of scheduling the activities needed to complete the project on time and on budget. At each step of the project, the possibility of a delay and cost overrun exists. The probability of a delay is generally taken into account by padding the duration of activities and cost estimates. The focus of this article is to allow the possibility of delays (non-excusable) in the development of the project critical path through simulation modeling. We also quantify the cost of crashing the stochastic CPM as well as determine the distribution of the resulting costs.
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