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Abstract:
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We briefly summarize the multistate ProFamy modeling framework for household and population projections. We then focus on the rational, justification, current and potential applications of a unique, important demographic property of ProFamy model, namely, that it substantially extends the classic cohort-component model for projecting population age-gender distributions to projections that include not only age-gender distributions but also family households and living arrangements of all members of the population. Lastly, we describe current work on methodological issues pertaining to further extensions of the ProFamy model to include health/disability status of the elderly and to perform stochastic forecasting with confidence interval estimates.
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