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Activity Number:
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424
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
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| Abstract - #309746 |
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Title:
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Military Requirements Forecasting: A Reliability-Based Approach
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Author(s):
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Dennis Mathaisel*+
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Companies:
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Babson College
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Address:
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Babson Hall 317, Babson Park, MA, 02457-0310,
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Keywords:
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Military Requirements Forecasting ; Reliability-Based Forecasting
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Abstract:
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The US military has been experiencing severe problems due to inaccuracies in their requirements forecasting: substantial budget increases from unanticipated demands; parts and materials shortages; and low safety stock levels. The Requirements Definition Forecasting process is critical to military sustainability. Improving RDF accuracies will greatly enhance operations by minimizing material and parts shortages and help improve warfighter operations by correctly predicting maintenance and logistics requirements necessary in meeting specified readiness levels. Current methods use traditional statistical demand forecasting methodologies based upon historical trends. This paper investigates a reliability-based approach that integrates empirical field data into physics of failure models to predict end-of-life failure modes and rates.
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