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Activity Number:
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192
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #309542 |
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Title:
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Modeling Longitudinal Steroid Hormone Levels for Predicting Menopausal Symptoms
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Author(s):
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Mary D. Sammel*+ and Jeanne Manson and Ellen W. Freeman
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Companies:
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University of Pennsylvania and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and University of Pennsylvania
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Address:
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707 Harvey Road, Wallingford, PA, 19086,
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Keywords:
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change ; Longitudinal Profiles ; mixed models
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Abstract:
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In a population-based cohort designed to study hormonal effects of ovarian aging, we estimated hormone trajectory and variability of each participant over four years. We evaluated whether these components predicted menopausal hot flashes, and compared these model-based estimates of estradiol (E) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) with standard statistical summaries. We hypothesized that change in hormone levels rather than absolute levels predicted menopausal symptoms. The quadratic estradiol trend (reflecting increasing then decreasing levels over four years) and the maximum observed FSH significantly predicted the prevalence and incidence of hot flashes. These results demonstrate that it is the trajectory of the hormone profile and not the absolute hormone level that is associated with menopausal hot flashes.
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