JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.


Back to main JSM 2007 Program page

Activity Number: 505
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 2, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #309188
Title: Real-Time Modeling of Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Author(s): Laura White*+ and Marcello Pagano
Companies: Boston University and Harvard University
Address: 715 Albany St T416E, Boston, MA, 02118,
Keywords: Basic Reproductive Number ; Serial Interval ; Infectious Disease Epidemics ; Disease Modeling
Abstract:

Infectious disease modeling is a complex problem with a long history. However, methods are lacking that adequately estimate the serial interval, defined as the time between a case and its infectee presenting with symptoms. Estimation of this interval and the basic reproductive number, R0,while an epidemic is in progress is a major public health interest that has only been addressed in a limited way. We present a likelihood-based method for simultaneous estimation of R0 and the serial interval and show how this method can be extended to adjust for a shrinking susceptible population and other population dynamics, such as the implementation of control measures. We discuss how this method can be viewed as an extension of branching process methodology, without required prior information on the serial interval. Results for this method are shown with real data.

  • The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
  • Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2007 program

JSM 2007 For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473. If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.
Revised September, 2007