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Activity Number: 432
Type: Roundtables
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 12:30 PM to 1:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #308332
Title: The Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Risk Management at the Department of Homeland Security
Author(s): David Banks*+
Companies: Duke University
Address: ISDS Box 90251, Durham, NC, 27708,
Keywords: game theory ; risk ; DHS
Abstract:

The DHS uses a somewhat Bayesian approach to risk management. We will outline what is currently done, and then open the floor for creative conversation. Some of the issues that arise include risk analysis, subjective probability, the Kadane-Larkey approach to game theory, and portfolio theory for maximizing return on defensive investments.

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Revised September, 2007