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Activity Number:
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532
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 2, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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| Abstract - #308223 |
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Title:
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A Bayesian Analysis of the Thermal Challenge Problem
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Author(s):
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Fei Liu*+ and Susie Bayarri and James Berger and Rui Paulo and Jerry Sacks
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Companies:
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Duke University and University of Valencia and Duke University and ISEG-Technical University of Lisbon and National Institute of Statistical Sciences
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Address:
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Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Durham, NC, 27708,
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Keywords:
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Bayesian analysis ; Computer model validation ; Gaussian stochastic process ; Thermal computer model
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Abstract:
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A major question for the application of computer models is "Does the computer model adequately represent reality?" Viewing the computer models as a potentially biased representation of reality, Bayarri et al.(2005) develop the Simulator Assessment and Validation Engine (SAVE) method as a general framework for answering this question. In this paper, we apply the SAVE method to the challenge problem: a thermal computer model designed for certain devices, and develop a statement of confidence that the devices can be applied in intended situations.
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