JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 525
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 2, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #308052
Title: Risk and the Early Detection of Disease
Author(s): Marvin Zelen and Sandra Lee*+
Companies: Harvard School of Public Health and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Address: Dept of Biostat and Comp Bio, Boston, MA, 02115,
Keywords: Early Detection ; Stochastic Model ; Exam Schedules ; Mammography
Abstract:

Currently, there are many recommendations for individuals to seek special exams to detect chronic diseases even though an individual has no signs or symptoms. The recommendations for screening exams consist of the age to begin the exams and the intervals between exams. Usually intervals between exams are fixed; e.g. every year, every two years, etc. However in nearly all adult cancers, the disease risk increases with age. This talk will discuss a method for scheduling screening exams according to risk status, which we call the "threshold" method. Illustrations will be made of the applications of the threshold method to breast and colorectal cancers compared to current screening guidelines for these diseases with regard to mortality reduction.


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Revised September, 2007