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This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 119
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #307870
Title: A Triage Approach to Evaluating Safety Incorporating Frequentist and Bayesian Methods
Author(s): A. Lawrence Gould*+
Companies: Merck & Co., Inc.
Address: UG1D-88, West Point, PA, 19486,
Keywords: Adverse Event ; Multiplicity ; Order Statistics ; Planning
Abstract:

The analysis of safety data is as important as the analysis of efficacy data. The most appropriate analysis strategy for an adverse event depends on whether it was identified a priori, as not identified a priori but not 'rare', and as not identified a priori and 'rare.' Multiplicity affects the interpretation of analyses because many adverse events often will be reported. Hypothesis testing will be of limited help for adverse events not identified a priori because the many hypotheses are generated by the data. Quantifying the degree of risk will be more helpful, especially using Bayesian methods. This presentation describes some general considerations in planning for safety evaluation, presents some ways to summarize data using confidence or credible intervals, describes a Bayesian approach to interpreting the outcomes, and suggests a simple graphical way to address multiplicity.


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Revised September, 2007