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Abstract:
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With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient features of wind speed: alternating atmospheric regimes, temporal and spatial correlation, diurnal and seasonal nonstationarity, conditional heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussianity. The RST method identifies forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed meteorological observations in the vicinity of the wind farm are used as off-site predictors.
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