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Activity Number:
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450
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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JASA, Applications and Case Studies
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| Abstract - #307694 |
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Title:
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Subjective Likelihood for the Assessment of Trends in the Ocean's Mixed-Layer Depth
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Author(s):
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Michael Lavine*+ and Ana Rappold and Susan Lozier
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Companies:
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Duke University and Duke University and Duke University
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Address:
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Box 90251, Durham, NC, 27708,
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Keywords:
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subjective Bayes ; physical oceanography ; climate change ; likelihood
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Abstract:
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This paper describes a Bayesian statistical analysis of long term changes in the depth of the ocean's mixed layer. The data are thermal profiles recorded by ships. For this data there is no good sampling model and therefore no obvious likelihood function. Our approach is to elicit posterior distributions for training data directly from the expert. We then infer the likelihood function and use it on large datasets.
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