JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2007 Joint Statistical Meetings in Salt Lake City, Utah.

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Activity Number: 117
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Committee on Applied Statisticians
Abstract - #307679
Title: Absolute Risk Models: Applications and Validation
Author(s): Mitchell H. Gail*+
Companies: National Cancer Institute
Address: 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS 8032, Bethesda, MD, 20892-7244,
Keywords: crude risk ; pure risk ; breast cancer ; calibration ; discriminatory accuracy ; loss function
Abstract:

Absolute risk is the crude probability of developing a given disease in a defined age interval in the presence of competing risks. Models of absolute risk for breast cancer have been used to design trials to prevent disease, to counsel women, and to aid in deciding whether to take tamoxifen to prevent breast cancer by weighing risks and benefits of the intervention. Models for other diseases have also been developed. In this talk, I will review some of the strategies used to develop models of absolute risk, illustrate applications, and discuss approaches to model validation tailored to intended applications.

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Revised September, 2007