JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #304302

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

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Activity Number:	525
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Thursday, August 11, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #304302
Title:	Comparison of Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches in Modeling Risk of Preterm Birth near the Sydney Tar Ponds, Nova Scotia, Canada
Author(s):	Afisi Ismaila*+ and Angelo Canty and Lehana Thabane
Companies:	McMaster University and McMaster University and McMaster University
Address:	Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, ON, L8N 3Z5, Canada
Keywords:	Risk assessment ; Hierarchical modelling ; Count data ; Bayesian ; Frequentist ; Standardized Incidence ratio
Abstract:	This study compares Bayesian and frequentist (nonBayesian) approaches in the modeling of the association between the risk of preterm birth and maternal proximity to hazardous waste and pollution from the Sydney Tar Pond site in Nova Scotia, Canada. In the frequentist approach, the Poisson model for aggregated data was fitted using the quasi-likelihood approach to accommodate overdispersion. Weighted linear regression also was used. In order to accommodate both the random effect and the anticipated spatial effects, Bayesian hierarchical modeling also was used to fit the Poisson model. The result of the Bayesian modeling shows there is no significant spatial association of risk in the area studied. All the models also show there is no decrease in risk of preterm birth as we move from the Tar Pond site to other regions.

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