JSM 2005 Online Program

Abstract #303841

This is the preliminary program for the 2005 Joint Statistical Meetings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Currently included in this program is the "technical" program, schedule of invited, topic contributed, regular contributed and poster sessions; Continuing Education courses (August 7-10, 2005); and Committee and Business Meetings. This on-line program will be updated frequently to reflect the most current revisions.

To View the Program:
You may choose to view all activities of the program or just parts of it at any one time. All activities are arranged by date and time.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors
and not necessarily those of the ASA or its board, officers, or staff.

The Program has labeled the meeting rooms with "letters" preceding the name of the room, designating in which facility the room is located:

Minneapolis Convention Center = “MCC” Hilton Minneapolis Hotel = “H” Hyatt Regency Minneapolis = “HY”

Back to main JSM 2005 Program page

Legend:

= Applied Session,

= Theme Session,

= Presenter

Activity Number:	274
Type:	Contributed
Date/Time:	Tuesday, August 9, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor:	Section on Survey Research Methods
Abstract - #303841
Title:	Enhancement of the Nonresponse Undercoverage Adjustment Factors for New Home Sales
Author(s):	Bonnie Kegan*+
Companies:	U.S. Census Bureau
Address:	1613 Forest Hill Ct, Crofton, MD, 21114, United States
Keywords:	X-12 ARIMA ; undercoverage ; outlier adjustment ; non-response
Abstract:	The Survey of Construction (SOC) measures monthly new home sales. In a typical month, only about 64% of sales for the US are reported on time. To account for nonresponse, the current method uses an ordered moving average of the most recent three months to estimate the ratios of late to on-time sales, which are then used to adjust the estimates. This method does not perform well when an unusually large (or small) amount of late reports occur in any given month because the adjustment in future months is skewed by this value. This paper details a more robust nonresponse adjustment method that includes ARIMA modeling and outlier adjustment, as well as a different approach to estimating the ratios of late to on-time sales using recent months and a 12- and 24-month history. A comparison of this new method and the current method shows an improvement in the revision history for the new method.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2005 program