JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303519

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 397
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #303519
Title: Generalized Variance Estimation for Business Surveys
Author(s): James Chipperfield*+
Companies: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Address: ABS House, Belconnen, 2616, Australia
Keywords: bootstrap ; variance estimation ; stratified design ; generalised systems
Abstract:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently developed a generalized estimation system for processing its large scale annual and subannual business surveys. Designs for these surveys are highly stratified, have nonnegligible sampling fractions, are overlapping over consecutive periods, and are subject to frame changes. A significant challenge was to choose a variance estimation method that would best meet the following requirements: valid for a wide range of estimators (e.g. ratio and regression), requires limited computation time, easily specified in a computer system, and good theoretical properties measured in terms of bias and variance. This paper describes the scaled bootstrap variance estimator implemented. The main advantages of the bootstrap over alternative replicate estimators are its processing efficiency, the relative simplicity with which it can be specified in a system, and its robustness against nonlinear adjustments to estimates. The paper describes the methods for point-in-time and movement variance estimates and gives proofs they are unbiased. Simulation results obtained as part of the evaluation process also are presented.

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Revised March 2005