JSM 2005 - Toronto

Abstract #303437

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Legend: = Applied Session, = Theme Session, = Presenter
Activity Number: 139
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2005 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #303437
Title: Applying Smoothing Spine and EM Algorithm to Airline Performance Modeling
Author(s): Yufeng Tu*+ and Michael Ball and Wolfgang Jank
Companies: University of Maryland and University of Maryland and University of Maryland
Address: 1306 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD, 20742-1815, United States
Keywords: flight departure delay ; smoothing spline ; mixture estimation ; air traffic congestion ; seasonal trend ; daily propagation
Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a model for estimating flight departure delay distributions. Such distributions are required by certain stochastic air traffic congestion prediction models. Major factors influencing flight departure delays are identified and studied. In addition, we developed a strategic departure delay prediction model. This model primarily employs a smoothing spline and mixture density distributions. It also demonstrates reasonable goodness of fit. We used flight data from Denver International Airport for the year 2000 when developing the model.

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Revised March 2005