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Activity Number:
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199
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Social Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #301986 |
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Title:
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August Zillmer's Contribution to Stable Theory in Demography
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Author(s):
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Peter O. Pflaumer*+
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Companies:
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FH-Kempten
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Address:
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Postfach 1680, Kempten, International, 87406, Germany
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Keywords:
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demography ; history ; population statistics
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Abstract:
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August Zillmer´s early contribution to demographic analysis is described and appreciated. His population model is recalculated and graphically completed with EXCEL. His conclusions and results are discussed and compared with modern demographic methods. August Zillmer (1831-1893) was a German life insurance actuary in Berlin. He is credited for one of the first German textbooks of actuarial mathematics. His name is associated with the Zillmer method of calculating life insurance reserves. Virtually unknown is his contribution to demography. In 1863 he published a discrete population model, and produced several age distributions by a given life table and different population growth rates. He showed that the resulting age distributions will eventually become stable. Although the stable model in demography can be traced back to Euler in 1760, Zillmer´s model is the first dynamic analysis of the influence of changes of population growth rates on the age distribution and population parameters such as the mean age.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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