JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #302048

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Activity Number: 90
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 9:00 AM to 10:50 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #302048
Title: What Accounts for the Goals Scored in the NHL?
Author(s): Norean R. Sharpe*+ and Brett Adamczyk and Andrew Mullin
Companies: Babson College and Babson College and Babson College
Address: Division of Math & Science, Babson Park, MA, 02457,
Keywords: sports data ; hockey ; intervention model ; regression model ; time series analysis
Abstract:

This study examines the average number of goals scored per game over time since 1917 using a unique dataset containing both league-based and team-based variables. The league variables include changes in rules and equipment, while the team-based variables include penalty minutes, schedule length, and several performance measures. An intervention model, based solely on when the league changes occurred, is developed in conjunction with a model using the continuous performance measures both for the entire time frame of the dataset, as well as for a more recent period in the NHL. In addition, traditional time series models, such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and ARIMAs are developed as a source of comparison with the intervention and regression models. All models are evaluated on the basis of retrospective accuracy, as well as accuracy against a hold-out sample. The impact of equipment changes, such as the size of goalie masks and goalie pads, on the frequency of goals scored is discussed.

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