JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #301324

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Activity Number: 434
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 12, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #301324
Title: Analysis of Divergence between Chained CPI-U and Regular CPI-U for the All_US-All_Items Indexes (2000-2002)
Author(s): Owen J. Shoemaker*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 2 Massachusetts Ave. NE Rm 3655, Washington, DC, 20212,
Keywords: superlative index ; Tornqvist ; stratified random group
Abstract:

In February 2004, the BLS calculated and published its third annual set of C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2002. The C-CPI-U (Chained Consumer Price Index - Urban) is calculated and published every year, with a one-year lag, using a Tornqvist formula, and its set of weights are updated yearly so that a unique set of monthly weights are available for both time t as well as for time t-n. The C-CPI-U can thus be labeled a "superlative" index. By contrast the Regular CPI-U uses weights that are, at a minimum, at least two years old, and uses a combination (hybrid) of Geomeans and Laspeyres formulas as its final estimator. The set of All_US-All_Items Chained C-CPI-U index results continue to diverge (lower) from Regular CPI-U index results. We investigate the nature of this divergence. We also analyze the two different weight structures, possible response biases, and the standard errors that we calculate for these indexes.

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