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Activity Number:
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328
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Health Policy Statistics
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| Abstract - #301043 |
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Title:
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Microsimulation Modeling to Estimate the Impact of Cancer Prevention Strategies for Healthy People 2010
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Author(s):
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Ann G. Zauber*+ and Marjolein van Ballegooijen and Iris Vogelaar and Rob Boer and Deb Schrag and Eric Feuer and Martin L. Brown
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Companies:
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Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and Erasmus University and Erasmus University and RAND Corporation and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and National Cancer Institute and National Cancer Institute
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Address:
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307 East 63rd St. Room 357, New York, NY, 10021,
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Keywords:
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microsimulation modeling ; colorectal cancer prevention ; Healthy People 2010 ; CISNET
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Abstract:
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The Healthy People 2010 (HP 2010) goals serve as the Department of Health and Human Services blueprint for achieving increased years of healthy life and eliminating health disparities by 2010. We use microsimulation modeling with the MISCAN model to project how best to achieve the HP 2010 goal of a 35% reduction in CRC mortality for the U.S. by 2010. We model treatment interventions of new chemotherapy regimes through the relative survival for each stage of disease; screening interventions through the stage of colorectal cancer detected and by detection and removal of adenomatous polyps, and lifestyle modifications through the risk of developing adenomas and the rate of progression of the adenoma to carcinoma. The estimated impact of each type of intervention is derived for the U.S. population to ascertain the anticipated magnitude of effect and whether the stated goal is obtainable. The results of this simulation model were presented to the NCI in June 2004 to assess the potential for reaching the HP 2010 goals for colorectal cancer mortality reduction and to suggest whether increased levels of interventions are required to meet the HP 2010 goal.
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