|
Activity Number:
|
328
|
|
Type:
|
Topic Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Health Policy Statistics
|
| Abstract - #301028 |
|
Title:
|
Microsimulation Modeling of Colorectal Cancer for Assessments to Guide Health Policy: Model Developments and Applications
|
|
Author(s):
|
Martin L. Brown*+ and Eric Feuer
|
|
Companies:
|
National Cancer Institute and National Cancer Institute
|
|
Address:
|
6130 Executive Blvd. EPN 4005, Bethesda, MD, 20892-7344,
|
|
Keywords:
|
modeling ; microsimulation ; cancer ; screening ; surveillance
|
|
Abstract:
|
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States; it is also one of the most preventable cancers. CRC develops when normal colonic epithelium gives rise to precancerous adenomatous polyps, which may grow and ultimately become invasive cancer. Mathematical modeling can describe this adenoma-carcinoma sequence but must be complex enough to describe the underlying progression and regression of disease and how screening and lifestyle factors can affect the disease process. Microsimulation models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for a hypothetical population and can be used to answer questions about these complex processes including the potential impact of interventions. We present three microsimulation models developed as part of the National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Monitoring Network that take into account lifestyle risk factors and regression of precursor lesions. The models are calibrated using observed data. We use the models to describe and explain CRC incidence and mortality trends in the United States 1975-2000 as a function of changes in screening.
|
