JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300931

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Activity Number: 217
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 10, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #300931
Title: Bias Adjustment in Bayesian Estimation of Bird Nest Age-specific Survival Rates
Author(s): Jing Cao*+ and Chong He
Companies: University of Missouri, Columbia and University of Missouri, Columbia
Address: 510 High St., Columbia, MO, 65201,
Keywords: age-specific survival ; Bayesian estimation ; simulation ; iteration ; hierarchical prior
Abstract:

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows early detection of unhealthy populations and helps develop good habitat-management practices. We use simulation to study the performance of the Bayesian model for age-specific nest survival rates with irregular visits. We find that the estimates are satisfactory except for the age-one survival rate. Usually the more days skipped between two visits, the more serious the underestimation of the age-one survival rate. We investigated the problem and developed three approaches to adjust for the underestimation. The simulation results show that the three approaches can significantly improve the estimation of the survival rate at age one. Finally, the adjustment is illustrated through an analysis of the Missouri Dickcissel dataset.

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