JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300734

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Activity Number: 329
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Business and Economics Statistics Section
Abstract - #300734
Title: An Implementation of Component Models for Seasonal Adjustment Using SsfPack Software
Author(s): Siem Jan Koopman*+
Companies: Free University Amsterdam
Address: FEWEB, Amsterdam, International, NL 1081 HV, The Netherlands
Keywords: seasonal adjustment ; time series ; outliers ; ARIMA models ; canonical decomposition ; unobserved components
Abstract:

An alternative to traditional methods of seasonal adjustment is to use component time series models to perform signal extraction, such as the structural models of Harvey currently implemented in STAMP, or the ARIMA decomposition models of Hillmer and Tiao currently used in SEATS. A flexible implementation allowing easy specification of different models has been developed using the SsfPack software module of the Ox matrix programming language. This allows the incorporation of heavy-tailed distributions into certain components within the model. Examples of robust seasonal adjustments for different model types using this method will be shown.


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Revised March 2004