JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300194

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Activity Number: 65
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Cmte on Statisticians in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #300194
Title: Statistical Challenges in Monitoring Mental Health Effects of Terrorism
Author(s): Douglas A. Samuelson*+
Companies: InfoLogix, Inc.
Address: 8711 Chippendale Court, Annandale, VA, 22003,
Keywords: mental health ; psychoactive agents ; threat detection ; health assessment ; health outcomes
Abstract:

Terrorist attacks, public alerts (including false alarms), and other traumatic events produce adverse effects on individuals and interpersonal relationships. Data are sparse, especially about relationships, but there are credible indications that these effects are surprisingly large: for example, the divorce rate among first responders to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing quadrupled in the year after the bombing. Detecting such effects and evaluating efforts to respond to them are difficult because of hesitation to seek treatment, stigma, and other incentives against accurate reporting, inconsistencies in diagnostic protocols, uncertainty in linking symptoms to causative events, and privacy issues. Consequently, even a direct attack utilizing psychoactive chemical agents would be hard to identify. This area offers interesting opportunities and pitfalls for innovative statistical analysis.

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