JSM 2004 - Toronto

Abstract #300043

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Activity Number: 63
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 9, 2004 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics
Abstract - #300043
Title: Applying the Law of Iterative Logarithm to Cumulative Meta-analysis
Author(s): Joseph C. Cappelleri*+ and Mingxiu Hu and K.K. Gordon Lan
Companies: Pfizer Inc. and Pfizer Global Research & Development and Aventis Pharmaceuticals
Address: Eastern Point Rd. (MS8260-2222), Groton, CT, 06340,
Keywords: cumulative meta-analysis ; meta-analysis ; law of iterated logarithm ; multiple inspections ; sequential analysis ; Type I error
Abstract:

Cumulative meta-analysis typically involves performing an updated meta-analysis every time a new trial is added to a series of similar trials, which by definition involves multiple inspections. This presentation presents an approach--motivated by the Law of Iterated Logarithm--that "penalizes" the Z-value of the test statistic to account for multiple tests and the unstable estimation of the between-study variances at the beginning of the testing process when the number of studies is small (Statistica Sinica 13:1135-1145, 2003). It can also account for the unpredictable nature of information from trials in a cumulative meta-analysis. Our extensive simulation studies show that this method controls the overall Type I error for a very broad range of practical situations for up to 25 inspections for both continuous outcomes and binary outcomes. Examples will illustrate the methodology.

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