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Activity Number:
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127
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Type:
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Other
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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ASA
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| Abstract - #302038 |
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Title:
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Statistical Models for Epidemics: Case Study of Anthrax
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Author(s):
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Ron Brookmeyer*+
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Affiliation(s):
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Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
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Address:
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615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21205-2103, USA
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Keywords:
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Abstract:
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This lecture concerns statistical models for epidemics with special focus on the recent anthrax outbreak. The critical role of the incubation period for monitoring and forecasting disease outbreaks will be reviewed. The incubation period distribution has played a central role in our understanding or several recent epidemics including AIDS, BSE (mad cow disease) and vCJD epidemics. In the fall of 2001, an outbreak of anthrax occurred in the United States. Twenty years earlier one of the largest outbreaks of inhalational anthrax occurred in Russia. We will review the roles that statistical reasoning and models can play in understanding these outbreaks. Specific topics will include estimating of incubation period, forecasting the magnitude of epidemics, investigating the source of outbreaks and quantifying how much disease could be prevented by rapid public health responses. Statistical challenges for addressing the threats of bioterrorism will be discussed.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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