Abstract #302037

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JSM 2002 Abstract #302037
Activity Number: 127
Type: Other
Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: ASA
Abstract - #302037
Title: How Many Cases Are Too Many? Detection of Disease Outbreaks and Clusters
Author(s): Lance Waller*+
Affiliation(s): Emory University
Address: 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322,
Keywords:
Abstract:

This presentation provides an overview of statistical ideas relating to the detection of "unusual" outbreaks of disease in time and/or space. News reports often suggest that a certain town experiences too many cases of a particular disease in too short a time. The implication is of some hidden causative factor. We outline the basic concepts of public health surveillance, outbreak detection, and cluster investigations; the forms of monitoring data; and various statistical strategies determining when to be "statistically concerned" about the observed number of cases. More importantly, we consider the types of questions answered by various statistical approaches, and contrast those to the types of questions we often wish they answered.

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Revised March 2002