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Activity Number:
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127
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Type:
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Other
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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ASA
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| Abstract - #302036 |
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Title:
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Epidemic Modeling: What Goes Around, Comes Around
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Author(s):
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M. Halloran*+
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Affiliation(s):
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Emory University
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Address:
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1518 Clifton Road, NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322,
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Keywords:
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Abstract:
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We present the basic concepts and methods used in modeling the spread of infectious diseases. The basic reproductive number, $R_0$, is the expected number of new infective individuals produced by one infective individual in a very large population of completely susceptible people. The reproductive number, $R$, is the expected number of new infectives that one infective individual will produce if an intervention strategy has been implemented. The reproductive number is a key concept in understanding the probability of whether or not an epidemic will take off in a population when an infectious agent is introduced, either intentionally or by nature. We discuss the elements that go into developing a dynamic simulator of the spread of an infectious disease. We illustrate the principles with stochastic simulations of epidemics of influenza and smallpox. We show how the potential effectiveness of intervention strategies such as vaccination, antivirals, and quarantine can be examined with such simulations.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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