Abstract #301991


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JSM 2002 Abstract #301991
Activity Number: 201
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Graphics*
Abstract - #301991
Title: Estimating the Renewal Distribution of a Spatial-Temporal Process
Author(s): Roger Peng*+ and Frederic Schoenberg
Affiliation(s): University of California, Los Angeles and University of California, Los Angeles
Address: 8142 Math-Science Building, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1554, USA
Keywords: Spatial-temporal modeling ; Fire risk ; Maximum quasi-likelihood ; time-since-fire ; coverage process
Abstract:

In this paper, a new method is described for characterizing the renewal properties of a spatial-temporal process. This new method is applied to geographic information systems data on wildfires and used to estimate the fire interval distribution for Los Angeles County, California. It is demonstrated that fuel age appears to have a nonlinear threshold-type relationship with wildfire burn area. The estimator is shown to be more stable than previous estimators and to have good finite and large sample properties.


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Revised March 2002