Optimal Service Strategy in Tennis

• Activity Number: 135
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 12, 2002 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports*
• Author(s): Jan Magnus*+ and Franc Klaassen
• Affiliation(s): Tilburg University and University of Amsterdam
• Keywords: tennis ; optimal strategy ; sequential methods ; serving

Abstract

This paper considers the question of optimal service strategy in tennis. The problem is how to determine the strength of the first serve and the second so as to maximize the probability to win a point against a specific opponent.

In tennis, unlike almost any other sport, the server has two chances to bring the ball into play. In current men's tennis the service plays a big role in the strength of a player. Even with one serve there is a question of how difficult to make the serve: too easy and the server loses the point, too difficult and the service will be out most of the time. Choosing the right balance is important.

Currently, the server has two serves rather than one, and determining the optimal strategy is more difficult. The server wants to select the strengths of the two serves so as to maximize the probability of winning the point.

Many professional players do not follow an optimal strategy and can benefit from a better strategy.

We develop a model for determining an optimal strategy to use even while a match is in progress. We apply the model to analyze some major matches from the past and discuss possible implications for the future.