Predict 5 Contest
Predict Five is a world-wide competition for students enrolled in high school, college, or graduate school that involves predicting events to take place in April 2024. The contest coincides with Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month, so it is an opportunity for statistics and data lovers everywhere to share their zeal with friends and colleagues.
Here’s How It Works
You will submit your numerical predictions as answers to the following five questions:
- In Major League Baseball, how many games will the New York Mets win during the month of April 2024?
- How many songs by Taylor Swift will appear on the last Top 40 list (chronologically) to be published on American Top 40 with Ryan Seacrest in April 2024?
- What will the “current national average gas price” (in US dollars and cents) be for regular gas in the United States on April 30, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. ET, according to AAA Gas Prices?
- What will the high temperature be (in degrees Fahrenheit) in Boston, Massachusetts, on April 30, 2024, according to AccuWeather?
- What will the closing stock price (in US dollars and cents) of Intel Corporation be at the end of the day on April 30, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?
And here’s a tiebreaker question, just in case:
Tiebreaker: In the National Basketball Association, how many total points will the Houston Rockets score in their eight regular-season games during the month of April 2024? Note: Your answer cannot be a round number—it must not end in a 0 or 5.
Your prediction must be a single number per question.
Your total score will be the sum of squared differences between predictions and actual results. See Table 1 for a hypothetical set of answers by an individual and the individual’s total score. In each category (i.e., high-school student, undergraduate student, and graduate student), the individual with the lowest score will be declared the winner.
You may submit only one entry, and all decisions by administrators/judges are final.
Prizes
- Best score by a high-school student: $200 and complimentary ASA student membership
- Best score by an undergraduate student: $200 and complimentary ASA student membership
- Best score by a graduate student: $200 and complimentary ASA student membership
- Honorable Mention (high-school student): Complimentary ASA student membership
- Honorable Mention (undergraduate student): Complimentary ASA student membership
- Honorable Mention (graduate student): Complimentary ASA student membership
Let’s Get This Party Started
The contest will open March 1, 2024, and the deadline for submitting your entry is March 31, 2024, at 11:59 p.m. ET.
Questions?
All questions can be emailed to Amanda Malloy.
Table 1. Questions for the 2024 Contest with Hypothetical Answers and Total Score
| Question | Hypothetical Answers | Hypothetical Correct Answers |
|---|---|---|
| 1. In Major League Baseball, how many games will the New York Mets win during the month of April 2024? | 8 | 10 |
| 2. How many songs by Taylor Swift will appear on the last Top 40 list (chronologically) to be published on American Top 40 with Ryan Seacrest in April 2024? | 2 | 2 |
| 3. What will the “current national average gas price” (in US dollars and cents) be for regular gas in the United States on April 30, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. ET, according to AAA Gas Prices? $4.01 $3.989 | $4.01 | $3.989 |
| 4. What will the high temperature be (in degrees Fahrenheit) in Boston, Massachusetts, on April 30, 2024, according to AccuWeather? | 70 | 74 |
| What will the closing stock price (in US dollars and cents) of Intel Corporation be at the end of the day on April 30, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance? | $41.92 | $37.89 |
| Tiebreaker: In the National Basketball Association, how many total points will the Houston Rockets score in their eight regular-season games during the month of April 2024? Note: Your answer cannot be a round number—it must not end in a 0 or 5. | 788 | 812 |
Based on the answers above, the individual’s total score, not including the tiebreaker question, is (8-10)2 + (2-2)2 + (4.01-3.989)2 + (70-74)2 + (41.92-37.89)2 = 36.24.