Caprice 3-4
Color Stability Prediction for Formulated Consumer Products (304762)
*Fangyi Luo, Procter & GambleKeywords: stability, predictive modeling, chemometics
Consumer products may experience certain stability problems over time (e.g. color or odor change, loss of actives, separation in liquid products). To prevent business against financial losses at the late stage of product development due to stability issues, we want to predict long term product stability at the early stage of product development. We have recently developed a color stability forecasting tool based on UV Vis color spectra data collected from accelerated stability testing with multiple temperatures over a few weeks. This tool can predict long-term product color change and failure risk with uncertainty estimate for color changes associated with one or more chemical reactions. It uses advanced chemometric methods (Multivariate Curve Resolution, etc.) and Bayesian analysis of kinetic models. This tool has been applied broadly to many product areas at P&G.