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Activity Number:
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52
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports: How Statisticians Can Get Involved
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, July 29, 2018 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy
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Abstract #326564
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Title:
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Applications of Extreme Value Methods in the IPCC and US National Assessment Reports
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Author(s):
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Michael F Wehner*
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Companies:
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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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Keywords:
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Extreme precipitation;
Extreme temperature;
Climate change;
Extreme Value Analysis;
Uncertainty quantification;
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Abstract:
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Results from extreme value analyses of daily precipitation and temperature first appeared in the 2012 Special Report on Extremes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change before a somewhat more comprehensive treatment in its 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of 2013. The AR5 presented projected 20 year return value changes in extreme hot and cold temperatures from the 5th version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as an assessment of projected changes in frequency. Future projections of extreme precipitation were presented only as a change in frequency and the scaling behavior with temperature that were somewhat less interpretable by a general audience. The CMIP6 models' performance in replicating extreme daily precipitation is anticipated to be significantly improved over CMIP5 models due to horizontal resolution increases approaching 20km. This should enhance the credibility of more sophisticated extreme value analyses including more quantified uncertainty assessments.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
