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Activity Number: 173
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 31, 2017 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Education
Abstract #324983 View Presentation
Title: Statistical Literacy: Two Kinds of Prediction
Author(s): Milo Schield*
Companies: Augsburg College
Keywords: Statistical education

Typically statisticians model so they can predict. But there are two very different kinds of predictions. One involves association; the other involves causation. This distinction takes various forms: being versus becoming; Judea Pearl's seeing versus doing; observing versus intervening; observational versus experimental; shifting focus versus changing something within the subjects, or a moment-in-time association versus a temporal association. This problem doesn't exist in in mathematics, since natures and causes are ignored. But this distinction is a major problem in statistics in general and statistical literacy in particular. All too often, the distinction is obscured, so the meaning is ambiguous. This papers investigates various examples of this ambiguity and argues that more attention needs to be given to this most important distinction.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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